How the Strong Dollar Complicates Policy (2024)

1 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. As of September 30, 2022.

Glossary

FX is foreign exchange market.

G10 consists of eleven industrialized nations that meet on an annual basis or more frequently, as necessary, to consult each other, debate and cooperate on international financial matters. The member countries are Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with Switzerland playing a minor role.

Hawkish refers to more aggressive monetary policy, the opposite of Dovish.

MSCI EAFE Index (Unhedged) is a market capitalization weighted composite of securities in 21 developed markets.

MSCI EAFE Index (Local) is a market capitalization weighted composite of securities in 21 developed markets, and its local performance is calculated in 13 different currencies, including the Euro.

Risk assets are those with a high degree of risk and volatility, such as such as equities, high-yield credit, commodities and currencies.

Safe-haven assets are financial instruments that are expected to retain, or even gain value during periods of economic downturn.

Terminal rate is the peak spot where the benchmark interest rate — the federal funds rate — will come to rest before the central bank begins trimming it back.

Risk Considerations

Equity securities are more volatile than fixed income securities and subject to greater risks. Small and mid-sized company stocks involve greater risks than those customarily associated with larger companies.

Investments in foreign securities entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. These risks are heightened in emerging markets.

The currency market affords investors a substantial degree of leverage. This leverage presents the potential for substantial profits but also entails a high degree of risk including the risk that losses may be similarly substantial. Such transactions are considered suitable only for investors who are experienced in transactions of that kind. Currency fluctuations will also affect the value of an investment.

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Date of First Use: December 15, 2022. 299812-OTU-1710163

How the Strong Dollar Complicates Policy (2024)

FAQs

How the Strong Dollar Complicates Policy? ›

It also makes dollar-denominated debts overseas — especially common in emerging markets — more onerous, essentially throttling economic activity. It creates hard questions in some countries about whether to intervene to prop up their currency in hopes of arresting capital outflows, as Indonesia did this week.

What is the consequence of a strong U.S. dollar? ›

The fallout from a strong dollar

A strong greenback can have a bunch of consequences, from making our exports more expensive to foreign buyers to potentially unsettling global markets.

Who benefits when the dollar is strong? ›

A strong dollar benefits exporters that sell to the United States, as Americans can afford to buy more foreign goods and services (including cheaper vacations).

Why does the US actually adopt a strong dollar policy? ›

A strong dollar is recognized to have many benefits but also potential downsides. Domestically in the US, the policy keeps inflation low, encourages foreign investment, and maintains the currency's role in the global financial system. Globally, a strong dollar is thought to be harmful for the rest of the world.

What are the disadvantages of a strong currency? ›

One of the biggest drawbacks to having a strong currency in your country is that you may not be able to purchase things from other countries that have weaker currencies. This is because they know how much money you have and they will make their prices higher to offset the cost of your currency.

Why is a strong U.S. dollar bad for the economy? ›

Overall, the knock-on effects of an overly strong dollar environment mean price pressures for U.S. stocks. As one rises, the other drops. But certain types of stocks typically do well when the dollar is strong. Generally, if the dollar's value increases, U.S. imports increase, while U.S. exports fall.

Is a strong dollar bad for the US economy? ›

A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive relative to foreign alternatives, to the prospective detriment of domestic businesses aiming to export goods and services.

What is the weakest currency in the world? ›

What Is the Weakest Currency in the World? The weakest currency in the world is the Iranian rial (IRR). The USD to IRR operational rate of exchange is 371,992, meaning that one U.S. dollar equals 371,922 Iranian rials.

How does a strong dollar affect emerging markets? ›

A strong U.S. dollar generally harms the economies of emerging nations. Emerging markets are reliant on foreign investment and foreign capital, both of which can evaporate when the dollar gains in value.

Which is the strongest currency in the world? ›

1. Kuwaiti dinar. Known as the strongest currency in the world, the Kuwaiti dinar or KWD was introduced in 1960 and was initially equivalent to one pound sterling. Kuwait is a small country that is nestled between Iraq and Saudi Arabia whose wealth has been driven largely by its large global exports of oil.

What happens if the U.S. dollar is no longer the reserve currency? ›

Economic Implications

If the US dollar were to lose its reserve status, it would likely lead to a significant decline in demand for the currency. As central banks diversify their reserves, the dollar could face downward pressure, resulting in a depreciation of its value.

What are the negative effects of dollarization? ›

Risks of Dollarization

Dollarization carries with it the risk of a loss of autonomy for a developing country that adopts it. When a country does not build and develop its own currency, it runs the risk of allowing its monetary policy controlled by a foreign country.

Who benefits from a weaker U.S. dollar? ›

A weaker dollar, however, can be good for exporters, making their products relatively less expensive for buyers abroad. Investors can also try to profit from a falling dollar by owning foreign-currency ETFs or investing in U.S. exporting companies.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of having a strong currency? ›

Pro: you can import goods from abroad for cheap. Con: you can't competitively export most goods abroad because they are more expensive than goods that are produced abroad.

What does it look like if the U.S. dollar is weak? ›

In terms of its impact, a strong dollar means that goods exported by the U.S. are relatively pricier for foreign customers to buy, while imports to the U.S. are relatively cheap. A weak dollar means American consumers must spend more dollars to buy the same imported goods but are a relative bargain abroad.

What are the pros and cons of a weak dollar? ›

A weakening dollar implies several consequences, but not all of them are negative. A weakening dollar means that imports become more expensive, but it also means that exports are more attractive to consumers in other countries outside the U.S. Conversely a strengthening dollar is bad for exports, but good for imports.

What is the consequence of a strong U.S. dollar quizlet? ›

A strong US dollar results in American goods becoming expensive for foreigners to purchase while foreign goods become cheaper for American buyers.

What happens if the world stops using the U.S. dollar? ›

If the world stops using the dollar as its reserve currency, it could have a significant impact on the U.S. stock market. A shift away from the dollar could lead to a decline in demand for U.S. financial assets, including stocks. This could result in a decrease in stock prices and potentially lead to a bear market.

How does the U.S. dollar affect the world economy? ›

The USD remains the world's reserve currency, providing relative stability and safety compared to other currencies. The dollar also supports global trade through its role in banking and its ease of use. The large supply of U.S. Treasuries also helps to preserve the USD's dominant role.

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